American’s basketball season tips off on November 9 with the first of eleven non-conference games, many of them rematches from last year. While AU has only four home games, three away games are in or very near to DC. Hopefully, the relatively low level of travel will help the team be prepared for a better non-conference performance than last year (4-8 in the non conference). All four wins were against opponents AU faces again this year.
The non-conference opponents American faces this year span a wide range: from some of the lowest rankest in D-1 last year (according to kenpom and Torvik) to teams that might sneak into the tournament. Let’s hope that the Eagles show they belong in the latter group.
November 9: at the Marist Red Foxes
2021-22 Record: 14-16
Head Coach: John Dunne (45-67 in four years)
Series Record: 2-2
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 207 kenpom/229 Torvik
Top Returner: Noah Harris
Key Departures: Jordan Jones, Jao Ituka (transfer to Wake Forest)
I know Election Day is coming up, but no, that’s not the FiveThirtyEight logo. The Marist Red Foxes enter year five of the John Dunne era with mixed results. In the last five years, they’ve compiled a 45-67 record (40.2% winning percentage) and finished in the top half of the MAAC only once. This year, the main question for Marist is where scoring will come from. Graduating senior big man Jordan Jones and guard Jao Ituka (Wake Forest transfer) drove the offense for the Red Foxes last year. Sophomore Noah Harris came off the bench for most of 2021-22, but played starter’s minutes. He will try to step into that lead guard spot, but hasn’t shown the shooting talent of Ituka so far in his career. If American plays within itself, they should be able to start the year off with a win over Marist for the second straight year.
November 13: at George Mason Patriots
2021-22 Record: 14-16
Head Coach: Kim English (14-16 in one year)
Series Record: 33-11 in favor of the Patriots
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 113 kenpom/121 Torvik
Top Returners: Josh Oduro, Davonte Gaines
Key Departure: D’Shawn Schwartz
Coach Kim English became a bit of a national darling last year, starting off his George Mason tenure with a four-game winning streak that included a win against the ranked Maryland Terrapins in College Park.
The wheels sort of came off after that, as the Patriots went 10-16 the rest of the way, including a 7-9 conference mark. It’s this site’s belief that English remains a good coach. This year’s squad has a lot of experience, and are led by defensive stalwart Josh Oduro and prolific scorer Davonte Gaines, both seniors. This year’s George Mason should prove to be a tough challenge and could make some noise in the A-10 conference.
November 16: William & Mary Tribe
2021-22 Record: 5-27
Head Coach: Dane Fischer (33-48 in three years)
Series Record: 35-15 in favor of the Eagles
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 338 kenpom/339 Torvik
Top Returner: Ben Wight
Key Departure: Quinn Blair
What a difference a year makes. Dane Fischer had a winning record as head coach of the Tribe before last year’s mess. After the 2021-22 campaign, his winning percentage at W&M fell from 57.1% to 40.1%.
When you drill down into last year’s performance, it just gets rough. They turned the ball over on nearly a quarter of their possessions, and didn’t find much success when they did get a shot off (eFG% of 46%, 330th in the country). They also were among the worst teams at defending two-pointers, giving up 55.7% inside the arc (347th in the country), and gave up 1.063 points/possession (262nd).
The Tribe are hoping their younger players – including junior forward Ben Wight – take a step forward this year. If not, this season – and Coach Fischer’s tenure – may be headed to the trash bin.
November 19: at the New Jersey Institute of Technology Highlanders
2021-22 Record: 11-18
Head Coach: Brian Kennedy (74-100 in six years)
Series Record: 2-0 in favor of the Eagles
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 342 kenpom/344 Torvik
Top Returner: Miles Coleman
Key Departures: Matt Faw, Antwuan Butler, Dylan O’Hearn (grad-transfer to Jacksonville)
While 11-18 doesn’t look like much, it was only a slightly below-average year compared to the rest of Brian Kennedy’s teams. This year, they bring back Miles Coleman, their highest-usage player from last year’s campaign. Unfortunately, much of his supporting cast has departed. They do bring in Marist transfer Raheim Sullivan, who went off for 30 points against American in last year’s season debut.
With a senior-laden team (almost 80% of available minutes are projected to go to seniors), the Highlanders can maybe creep back to a middling, near-.500 team. Anything better than that would take a breakout season from someone. Look for AU to keep NJIT winless in this series.
November 23: at Georgetown Hoyas
2021-22 Record: 6-25
Head Coach: Patrick Ewing (68-84 in five years)
Series Record: 45-10 in favor of the Hoyas
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 175 kenpom/172 Torvik
Top Returner: Dante Harris
Key Departures: Donald Carey, Aminu Mohammed (NBA), Kaiden Rice
For my money, there’s no AU rival like Georgetown. This rivalry permeates all of student life. Georgetown students were jerks to me from the moment I set foot on AU’s campus, from their men’s Ultimate frisbee team, to their supposed academic superiority, to an arrogance that permanently occupies that whole neighborhood, like an obnoxious fog that won’t shut up about their SAT scores.
Sorry, I have feelings about Georgetown. And those feelings make it difficult to experience anything other than glee to see Hoya Legend Patrick Ewing struggle at the helm. Our neighbors down Wisconsin Avenue start the season on a 21-game losing streak, and while they were almost certainly better than their record last year, they might not be much better this year. Much of their production from last year has moved on, and PG Dante Harris is much better as a distributor than as a first option himself. The Hoyas are then relying on shooting wing Collin Holloway and 7’2″ center Ryan Mutombo to take big steps forward and carry the offensive load. I’d put it at 60/40 that Georgetown can pull that off and move out of the basement of the Big East.
November 26: at Saint Francis Red Flash
2021-22 Record: 9-21
Head Coach: Rob Krimmel (134-170 in ten years)
Series Record: 14-9 in favor of the Eagles
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 325 kenpom/327 Torvik
Top Returner: Josh Cohen
Key Departure: Ramiir Dixon-Conover
The final of three non-conference opponents coming off of seasons with single-digit wins, this Saint Francis team should be able to take a step forward this season, especially if junior Josh Cohen can find some help. He emerged last year as a do-everything forward for the Red Flash, leading the team in scoring, rebounding, and blocks. He plays like a traditional big, with 2/3 of his shot attempts at the rim and zero (0) three-point attempts last year. The emergence of a wing who can shoot – Myles Thompson and Brad McCabe, perhaps – would go a long way towards reducing the focus on Cohen and making this team’s offense a force to be reckoned with.
November 29: Albany Great Danes
2021-22 Record: 13-18
Head Coach: Dwayne Killings (13-18 in one year)
Series Record: 2-1 in favor of the Great Danes
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 286 kenpom/296 Torvik
Top Returner: Trey Hutcheson
Key Departures: Matt Cerruiti, Jamel Horton, De’Vondre Perry
The Great Danes are going to be looking for answers this season if they want to continue building in Coach Killings’ second season. They need to replace 70% of the minutes from last year’s team, including the trio of Horton, Cerruiti, and Perry, who Albany relied on to for most of their action last year. Can Trey Hutchinson improve his effectiveness and become a three-level scorer? Will transfers Malik Edmead and Sarju Patel provide the reinforcements needed to supplement this young team? Albany will need all of these to hit if they want to avoid year two of the Dwayne Killings era going in the wrong direction.
December 6: at Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
2021-22 Record: 14-16
Head Coach: Don Engelstad (46-70 in four years)
Series Record: 36-32 in favor of the Eagles
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 246 kenpom/257 Torvik
Top Returner: Jalen Benjamin
Key Departures: Nana Opoku
Programs like this often leave me scratching my head. It reminds me of a high school in the town I grew up in: the Pioneer Pioneers. Naming yourselves the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers just reeks of a lack of creativity. I guess it’s better than having yet another team with a bulldog mascot (looking at you, Georgetown), but just barely.
(Yes, I realize I write about, and graduated from, an institution that calls itself the American Eagles. Maybe I don’t have much of a leg to stand on. But hey: we aren’t the American Americans.)
ANYWAY. The Mount St. Mary Mountaineers return PG Jalen Benjamin, the engine that makes their offense go. While they lose a few pieces around him, they are hopeful that last year’s second line can step in and maintain a fine offensive unit. Their defense was more their calling card last year, and much of that will depend on if center Malik Jefferson can provide the same presence down low for as much of the game as his predecessor Nana Opoku.
The blog would bet on Mount St. Mary’s to tread water as a middling Northeast Conference team, but a frustrating one to play.
December 10: at George Washington Colonials
2021-22 Record: 12-18
Head Coach: Chris Caputo (first year)
Series Record: 25-21 in favor of the Eagles
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 226 kenpom/222 Torvik
Top Returner: James Bishop
Key Departures: Joseph Bamisile (transfer to Oklahoma), Brayon Freeman (transfer to Rhode Island)
In the offseason, GW fired coach Jamion Christian after three years. He was hired by conference-mate Rhode Island and brought talented freshman guard Brayon Freeman with him. High-usage guard Joseph Bamisile also took off, leaving a group of seniors and long-time Miami assistant Chris Caputo to put together a team.
George Washington had an OK year last year. Were they great at anything? No. Were they terrible at anything? Rebounding, but that’s to be expected when only one player taller than 6’8″ averages more than 10 min/game.
This year, they have a bit more height, a bit more experience, and a good distributor in James Bishop (who can maybe even score if needed). This year, Caputo has a chance to finish with a winning record and prove he’s got the coaching chops to cut it as head man, before a couple likely down years as he builds this program into what it will be long-term.
December 13: Virginia Military Institute Keydets
2021-22 Record: 16-16
Head Coach: Andrew Wilson (first year)
Series Record: 3-1 in favor of the Eagles
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 170 kenpom/173 Torvik
Top Returner: Sean Conway
Key Departures: Jake Stephens (transfer to Chattanooga), Trey Bonham (transfer to Florida), Kamdyn Curfman (transfer to Marshall), Honor Huff (transfer to Chattanooga)
To start, I want to address what I’m certain is on everybody’s mind: no, this is not where Ben Wallace went to school. That was Virginia Union.
VMI has had a rough go of it this past year. Their coach Dan Earl was hired away by Chattanooga, bringing along star center Jake Stephens and talented scoring freshman guard Honor Huff with him (not to mention one assistant coach from Tenleytown). Two other starters transferred out, and the cupboard looks bare.
In his first year, Andrew Wilson will rely on inconsistent shooter Sean Conway and a number of players who may not be ready for prime time, as he did not bring in any transfers.
It’s a little disappointing for VMI, who looked poised to challenge for one of the top spots in the conference this year. Instead, it’s likely they will be starting from the bottom.
December 22: Siena Saints
2021-22 Record: 15-14
Head Coach: Carmen Marciariello (47-29 in three years)
Series Record: 5-2 in favor of the Saints
Final 2021-22 Ranking: 239 kenpom/242 Torvik
Top Returner: Jackson Stormo
Key Departures: Colby Rogers (transfer to Wichita State), Nick Hopkins
Shockingly, American’s final non-conference opponent is the only one who had a winning record last year. They were a boom or bust team, with the winning team in their games last year getting to 80 points in over 20% of their contests. The problem is, they were on the receiving end of that score just as often as they put it up themselves.
They were good at shooting the three and preventing other teams from getting many up. Of course, as can often be the case with squads like that, sometimes your shots simply aren’t falling. They lose their best long shooter in Colby Rogers, so let’s hope that they lose a bit of effectiveness behind the arc, at least against American.
Predictions, etc.
I have a background in politics, so excuse me if I borrow from Cook Political Report in my ratings of games: solid win, likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, likely loss, solid loss.
Likely Win:
- William & Mary
- at NJIT
- Albany
- VMI
Lean Win:
- at Marist
Toss-up:
- at St. Francis
- at Mount St. Mary’s
Lean Loss:
- Siena
Likely Loss:
- at George Mason
- at George Washington
Solid Loss:
- at Georgetown
While we shouldn’t count chickens, I think American will get out to a good start this year, struggle against the most talented teams on their schedule, and head into conference play with a 6-5 record.
Go Eagles.