Game Basics:
Time: 7:00 pm ET
Location: Bender Arena, Tenleytown, Washington, DC
Video: ESPN+
The Opponent:
William & Mary Tribe (1-2)
Last year: 5-27
Rank: 335 kenpom/296 torvik
Coming off of two tough losses, American prepares to face William & Mary in their home opener. As you may have seen above, the Tribe has achieved victory in this season before the Eagles. Their lone win comes against Mid-Atlantic Christian University. I think the best way I can describe the level of that competition is this: MACU has 198 students who do not play college basketball. They, of course, only have 20 students comprising their men’s and women’s teams. When William & Mary faced, ahem, actual competition, things did not go great for them.
In their first game against Navy, William & Mary allowed them to rebound over 40% of their misses. Now, while the Tribe are only 199th in effective height (via kenpom), Navy is 341st. The Midshipmen had no business getting to so many rebounds. As a result, they took five more shots than William & Mary. That is one thing that allowed they to pull away in the last 10 minutes.
On Sunday against Virginia Tech, the Tribe’s offense was shooting the lights out. They shot 50% from the floor – both from 2 (18-36) and from 3 (11-22). They averaged just shy of 1.2 points/possession, which is the 98th best mark in this young season. (For perspecitive, Torvik lists 384 games in this season, which would put William & Mary’s performance against VT in the 87th percentile). Now, as mentioned before, the Tribe’s only win this season is against Mid-Atlantic Christian University. That would mean that William & Mary must have lost when they shot 50% from 3. Which they did. By double digits.
They did so by turning in an abysmal defensive performance, allowing 1.46 points/possession, the second best mark so far this year. See, VT also shot 50% from 3, but they took ten more 3s than William & Mary. We don’t need to dwell on this game, but it was rough for the Tribe.
So far, William & Mary is looking like one of the worst defenses in the league. Part of that is who they’ve played – Virginia Tech had a top-20 offense last year, after all. Their offense last year is what really sunk the tribe. The question in, was their performance on Sunday a mirage, or a team starting to turn a corner? The Eagles certainly hope it’s the former.
The Players
While this site’s preview singled out Ben Wight as a key returner, we regrettably did not mention key transfers. That’s exactly what guard Anders Nelson has been so far. Coming in from St. Thomas, Nelson has started this year as a maestro at the point. He has a ludicrous assist rate of 45.1, good for 25th in the county. With a TORate of 16.2, his assist/TO ratio is nearly 3:1 (4:1 if you include the game against MACU). He went off against VT, to the tune of 25 points on 16 shot equivalents. Eli Stephens will likely draw this matchup, and he’ll need to be locked in to prevent Nelson giving his teammates open looks.
Chief among those are Wight in the post and Gabe Dorsey on the wing. Wight plays like a traditional big, with eight of his ten makes coming at the rim. He’s also a force on the boards, with an offensive rebound rate that puts him top 100 nationally. Dorsey, on the other hand, is an outside threat. Against their two real opponents, he has no assists, no shots at the rim, and is 6-13 from 3. Colin Smalls has shown some quick hands early this year. If he matches up with Dorsey, it will be interesting to see if he can poke a couple balls loose and get out on a break.
Other main players include Noah Collier, another forward who can drive well to the basket and has shown a knack for blocking shots early. Rounding out their top minute-getters is guard Chris Mullins, a high-risk high-reward player who is good at getting steals, getting fouled, and turning the ball over.
Predictions, etc.
American is reeling after two tough losses. Assuming Jermaine Ballisager Webb is still out with injury (nothing from the program), Wight and Collier will be tough for the Eagles to match. AU’s best chance seems to be to outscore the Tribe, something they’ve been able to do sporadically so far this season. Overall, this looks to be a tight game, with AU hoping to get hot early like they did in Fairfax, and holding on late. 73-71, AU Victory.