Game Basics:
Time: 7:00 pm ET
Location: Bender Arena, Tenleytown, Washington, DC
Video: ESPN+
The Opponent:
George Washington Colonials (2-1)
Last year: 13-18
Rank: 178 (Her Hoop Stats)
Last year, George Washington had the opposite of a potent offense. They were 31st worse in scoring, with 0.795 points per possession. They were also the 6th slowest team in the country, averaging 64.3 possessions per 40 minutes. This combined to produce the 7th lowest mark in points per game last year: 51.2. On top of that, their eFG% and FT% both were among the worst in the league, ranking 15th worst and 2nd worst nationally.
So far this year, the Colonials are shooting much better, with a top-100 eFG%. Their points per possession are middle of the pack, and they’re playing quite a bit faster – averaging 22 more possessions per 40 minutes.
Part of this is due to Penn grad-transfer Mia Lakstigala, who’s off to a fast start with her new team. She’s 8-13 from three, and that doesn’t seem like a blip. She has shot 35.8% and 35% from deep the past two years, with over half of her shots coming from beyond the arc last year. A taller guard at 5’11”, it’s likely Ivy Bales will draw this matchup. The name of the game will be running her off the line. She’s no less dangerous inside the arc, but those makes are worth fewer points.
Freshman Nya Robertson is also making things happen early in her career. The young guard has a 30.6% assist rate and is also a shooting threat: 52.9% eFG%. On the downside, she is turning the ball over 40.7% of the time. American showed a tenacious defense at key points last year, including in the first round of the tournament against Michigan. If they can resurrect that, they may be able to force enough mistakes to neutralize the talented youngster.
Returners Mayowa Taiwo and Essence Brown are also providing GDub some valuable minutes. Taiwo has been attacking the boards, rebounding over a quarter of her opponents’ misses. She’s a paint-bound post, without a three-point make in her career. Historically, she’s been good at drawing fouls, so expect her to make it to the line more than she has so far this year. Brown has been a better distributor this year, with a 2:1 assist/turnover ratio. She’s not a talented three-point shooter, where she’s taken half of her shots so far this year. AU should live with that shot, and prevent her from driving and dishing.
Predictions, etc.
George Washington has been average defensively, not excelling at anything aside from rebounding. If American can contain their two main offensive threats, they should have a good chance to come away with a victory in their home opener. However it goes, this will be a good opportunity for the Eagles – still regaining their footing after losing so many pieces from last year’s squad – to right the ship and establish some flow ahead of their trip to the Bahamas.
American takes it, 67-61.